Election Drivers


Post #26, Bob McKnight's Subscription Commentary

2018 The Year of the Women

There are always predictions just prior to a big election. 2018 is no different. Many political pro's are still smarting from the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election with President Trump proving almost all the polls wrong. Analysis of that surprise election seems to center on underestimating the deep negatives of Hillary Clinton, and the pent up concern about losing jobs to foreigners. To his credit Trump was a negative campaigner like never seen before.

So as we approach the critical 2018 mid term elections, I don't want to pick the winners and losers, but instead point out where there is voter passion and who that might favor.

Passion:

1. Women voting. I would predict that the number of women voting will spike like never before, maybe 20% over previous years. Advantage Democrats.

2. Trump Base. The so called Trump base of about 35% of the country will turn out in large numbers. Advantage Republicans.

3. African American Votes. The African American vote will turn out in States where Blacks are on the ballot--particularly in Florida and Georgia. Advantage Democrats.

4. Slime Votes. Rick Scott will feel the full brunt of the coastal voters's disdain for his connection with the green lime. In areas like Stuart, Vero Beach, Palm Beach, St. Petersburg, Naples and Fort Myers Scott will lose substantial Republican votes to Bill Nelson. Advantage Democrats.

No Passion

1. Traditional Republicans have tossed in the towel with the Trumpers. Disadvantage Republicans.

2. Tax Cut Voters. Few Americans felt Trump's massive tax cuts enjoyed by major Corporations. Trump's plan to cut Corporate taxes further enjoys no support in the Congress. Disadvantage Republicans.

3. Pro Tariff Voters. The heart of America seems to be giving up hope on imposing tariffs all over the world. It has been over a year, and many businesses want to go back to pre-tariff days. Disadvantage Republicans.

4. Social Experiment Voters. Obama's penchant for trying social experiments like same sex bathrooms and transgenders in the military service have not gained traction. It is a small vote and the Disadvantage goes to the Democrats.


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