Updated: Oct 14, 2019
Post # 84, Bob McKnight's Florida Political Commentary
"If the charges are proven clearly in the House, the Republicans cannot vote against the law, and might give up Trump to get rid of him, and to keep Pence, instead of Pelosi."
The Impeachment Investigation of President Trump has taken monumental twists and turns since being announced just 2 weeks ago. I have been asked by some of the subscribers to this Commentary, what do I think will happen?
I have said publicly that I think there is a very real possibility that Trump will resign to become a martyr for his 35% base. But, I think only the limitation of time will prevent the House from then filing Articles against the Vice President. The Republicans in turn would do anything to keep Speaker Pelosi from becoming President.
So as of this date, here is what I think will happen:
1. The House will vote out Articles of Impeachment on President Trump, probably based upon his violation of Federal Law 52 U.S. Code S 301.21, dealing with Prohibited Acts by a Foreign National. This case is a direct violation of law, and the House has the evidence proving it in their hands now.
The House could select additional or different charges from a number of other serious crimes allegedly committed by the President, such as Obstruction of Justice, Treason, Campaign Finance Violations, Jury Tampering, Perjury, among others. But the Foreign National Charge I think can be processed the quickest and easiest in the interest of time. Time is of the essence in the Impeachment because the election occurs in just over 1 year.
2. The Senate will try the case and convict. This is a change for me, and it is based on the overwhelming evidence sent by House in the Articles of Impeachment. I believe there are at least 2/3 (67 Senators) of the Senate that would vote to convict Trump just to be free of his threatening intimidation, and embarrassing behavior. I believe the Senate Republicans will vote in near unison to protect themselves in their own elections.
3. Depending on time, the House may or may not file Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Pence. It is apparent they have substantial cause, but they may not have time to conduct two Impeachments before the election. Also, the Republicans will probably cooperate with the Democrats on Trump's Impeachment to keep Pence as President and to avoid elevating Speaker Pelosi to President. Either way, I think Pence will remain in office through the election. I believe Trump will turn against Pence out of his deep resentment of losing the Presidency, even to Pence.
4. After the election, depending on the winner, private and public litigation will start again.