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America in 2030

Post # 194, Bob McKnight's Florida Blog

The Political Party Demographics are setting up perfectly in the next 10 years for the "Dreamers."

A recent survey of the Public Religion Research Institute and Brookings Institute on American Values was very interesting. Recognizing that the survey focused on the competing views of Republicans and Democrats, it predicted a continuing and even growing split in American Values among the two parties.

63% of Republicans surveyed said that Christians are the only true Americans. Almost the same number, 62% say only the native born are true Americans. 71% of Republicans said immigrants weaken American society by threatening its' values. 65% of Republicans say immigrants are a burden --taking jobs, housing, and health care away from American citizens. There are exceptions in the GOP among businesses requiring manual labor and inexpensive labor.

Conversely, 78% of Democrats say that immigrants strengthen our society. 82% of Democrats believe that immigrants talents and hard work strengthen the U.S. Democrats point to border states like Florida, California, and Arizona where immigrants have enriched those states with diversity of thinking, entrepreneurial success and a true melting pot of cultures. But, most point out that the historic assimilation of the immigrants was orderly and spread over many years.

So, let's look forward approximately 10 years. What we very well may see in terms of the two political parties:


40% Native Born Americans

75% Very Conservative

30% Immigrants

30% People of Color

50% Christian

75% Suburban and Rural


25% Native Born Americans

65% Moderate to Liberal

50% Immigrants

70% People of Color

35% Christian

80% Urban

So, my prediction is that the current trend of Republicans leaning more white, conservative and anti-diversity will probably continue for the next 10 years. Conversely, the movement toward Democrats to the left, led by persons of color and the focus on issues like race relations and climate change will continue through 2030.

But the big difference which I am predicting here will be the rise and then achievements of Immigrants which we have come to know as "Dreamers." These were the immigrants that President Obama tried to shield from deportation and have them steeped in American values. They will be aggressively recruited by both parties, but probably will be expected to affiliate more with the Democrats. There will be some that are conservative, and they can demand party affiliation of their choice. As in the Donnie Osmond song of Jacobs' Amazing Technicolor Coat, "Any Dream Will Do."



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