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Christie's Narrow Lane

Post # 277, Bob McKnight's Florida Commentary

Christie is the only one who has a feasible plan and the will to fight to the end.

It is said that politics really boils down to just numbers. Nothing but numbers. Who can identify the right number of votes wins. And it is very important that a campaign counts the numbers correctly. This is not as easy as it sounds. Let's look at the crowded Republican Primary for President next year.

The clear favorite is former President Donald Trump with about 35% of the Republican vote, no matter what. There is a small hand full of opponents to Trump, among DeSantis, Christie, Pence, Hailey, and Tim Scott that are polling roughly 5-10% each of the vote. At this point, if Trump is going to be challenged, the five opponents appear to have the only chance. But there are another dozen or so in for the fight.

Let's look at the lane selected by each of the 5:

DeSantis--copy Trump, but criticize him for effectiveness.

Christie--attack Trump hard, and let the chips fall where they may.

Pence--criticizes Trump, but searches for enough of the old guard to overcome him.

Hailey--criticizes Trump, but offers faint praise of him at the same time.

Tim Scott--ignores Trump, and shows happy shoes as an African American.

In my opinion, normally one would assume DeSantis would become the main challenger, but it is clear that he cannot take a punch at this level. And with the press helping, Trump can punch. Hard and often.

The only Republican challenge to Trump with both a feasible attack plan and the ability to punch and counter-punch is former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. If Christie can secure the three targets identified in my previous post, he can beat Trump and probably Biden:

Abortion: Approximately 70% of the country and 35% of Republicans favor keeping Roe.

Protect Social Security and Medicare: 90% receiving care favor keeping it.

Keep Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Programs: 65% favor keeping them.

So in the tough primary, I believe Christie can hit Trump so hard and so often (especially if the courts rule again against the twice-impeached, convicted, and twice-indicted former President) that Christie will total at least 15% of the GOP vote, and the three issues above will net him the narrow win. Then Trump will fold like a deck of cards because he feels he stands a better pardon chance with Christie than Biden.

It is a matter of numbers for Christie and a very narrow lane to victory.



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