Post #88 , Bob McKnight's Florida Political Commentary
The winners and losers from the process will be determined by the conduct and integrity of the two parties.
As of this writing, based on the make up of the U.S. House of Representatives (controlled by the Democrats) and Senate (controlled by the Republicans), it is probable that the House will Impeach President Trump, but the Senate will not convict him. That is not based on the evidence, but just the number of members by party in each chamber.
What does that mean? What will happen with the election? Who wins and loses?
Obviously, this is just my opinion, but it is based on my research and talking to a number of people in politics:
What does it mean to be Impeached, but Not Convicted? Since the Impeachment is kin to determining probable cause, it is a serious blemish on Trump's record in history. There would only be 4 Presidents ever Impeached. But if he is not convicted in the Senate it does mean that Trump is innocent of the charges brought against him by the House. Trump can run for election and will emphasize his innocence, while his opponents will cite the historic blemish his record will carry into history, suggesting we can do better than that.
The 2020 Election will go on as it would with or without the Impeachment process. The role the Impeachment plays in the election is really dependent on how it was handled by the two parties. Generally, just the charge can be damaging to a candidate, but Trump has an extraordinary following among his base, so he is expected to be effective in playing the martyr role.
The winners and losers from the Impeachment Process will be determined by how the two parties carried out their roles. If the public views the actions of one party fair and credible, they will probably benefit politically. On the other hand, if one party is perceived as unreasonable or untruthful, it will not do well in the election.
It is an ugly process, but it is the very best known in the world.