Post # 350, Bob McKnight's Florida Commentary
The late Miami Herald Political Writer John McDermott would have predicted the Harrris-Trump race in his "Fearless Forecast."
As readers of this column are aware, one of the most important and popular political columnists in Florida during the Golden Age ('70s and '80s) of Florida politics was John McDermott of the Miami Herald. He was very kind in making me a regular in his columns. He made what he called his "Fearless Forecast," before every election. John is no longer with us, but I assume he will not mind if I try to carry on his tradition in this year's presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris (D.) and former President Donald Trump (R.).
In most elections, I believe the issues are the best determinants for predicting the outcome of the election. There are many, but I think these are the five that drive votes. I then predicted which issues each candidate would win and lose in order to predict the ultimate winner.
Issues:
The most important issues determining the outcome, in no particular order. I think each issue will have a value of approximately 20% of the vote.
The economy--the macro view of consumer confidence, employment, the financial markets, and inflation.
Immigration--the threat of it not being firmly and humanely managed with a comprehensive plan.
Integrity--protection of our American freedoms, democracy, and bi-partisan civility.
Safety--Firmly and fairly enforce our laws to maintain law and order and the rule of law.
Aspiration--maintain the opportunity and excitement for America's future.
My analysis: Based on the five issues, here is how the candidates will fare:
Economy; Harris will get 44% of that vote. Trump will get 56% of that vote.
Safety: Harris will get 50% of that vote. Trump will get 50% of that vote.
Integrity Harris will get 65% of that vote. Trump will get 35% of that vote.
Immigration Harris will get 42% of that vote. Trump will get 58% of that vote.
Aspiration Harris will get 66% of that vote. Trump will get 34% of that vote.
My "Fearless Forecast:
Americans feel that Trump may be better for the economy and handling immigration, but they do not trust nor believe him. Americans are evenly split about which candidate will keep America safe, but favor Harris to manage America best in the future.
Harris: 53.4% Trump: 46.6%
Actual vote percentages will be less because of third party candidates.
PS: As a footnote, the latest polling data shows the Republicans are outvoting the Democrats in absentee voting. But because of abortion and the Trump slurs of "garbage," "women whether they like it or not," "threatening to shoot Liz Chaney," and "impugning Puerto Ricans", I predict Republican Women will vote roughly 25% for Harris. Trump will draw more men but more women vote in far greater numbers than men, which gives the late-breaking votes to Harris by a skosh.
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