Post # 334, Bob McKnight's Florida Commentary
The running mates may make the difference--Vance has weighed Trump down with no abortion exceptions, while Harris can select among 5 running mates that could deliver key swing states.
Sunday, President Joe Biden did what was expected among many Democrats, -- to acknowledge his weakness in the polls, as their nominee. He withdrew his candidacy and announced his support for Vice President Kamal Harris as the Democratic nominee. With Biden's endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, her nomination as President on the Democratic ticket is now certain. Although there may be some movement against Harris, it is expected to be slight. But the race for Vice President Harris' running mate will be intense.
The last time a sitting elected President chose to not run for re-election was in 1968. The country was badly split just like today--56 years later. President Lyndon Johnson had declined to run for re-election and said he wanted to devote all his energies to ending the Vietnam War with honor. His Vice President Hubert Humphrey stepped in to run for President on the Democratic ticket. The Republican candidate for President was Richard Nixon who had skillfully patched up his support in the GOP and seemed to have their party generally united behind his candidacy. Humphrey selected respected Maine Senator Ed Muskie as his running mate, and Nixon picked unknown Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew. The running mate candidates were ignored. That has generally been the case in all elections since 1968.
Donald Trump, like Nixon, has the support of the Republican Party, but it is a new party supporting Trump, not knowing exactly what he will do as President. Although he is a convicted felon and facing a series of indictments, the Republican Party does not seem to care.
Trump picked a surprise running mate, ultra-conservative Ohio Senator J. D. Vance. The GOP ignored the fact that Vance had called Trump a Nazi previously and settled in on the ticket. But perhaps more significant in the polls, Vance is a strident opponent of abortion, with no exceptions. Although it is suspected that Trump does not share Vance's vehement disdain for abortion, the Republicans are locked in with Vance's position.
Polling seems to favor the Republicans over the Democrats, but that may very well change quickly. Kamala Harris will pull votes from women, blacks, immigrants, independents, and moderates. It is expected that abortion will drive the most votes from the GOP to the Democrats.
Much will probably ride on whomever Harris picks as her running mate. She is from California so she will probably select among Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (pulling the eastern and Jewish vote), Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (pulling the pro-military vote), Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (pulling the Midwest vote), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, or Tennessee Governor Roy Cooper (both pulling the Southern vote).
The Presidential election this year will be another close election. It is expected to come down to the last-minute actions of the candidates and the parties But this may be the first election for President that could be largely decided by the running mate selected. That is Vance taking votes away from Trump and any one of 5 candidates adding votes to Harris.
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