Post # 357, Bob McKnight's Florida Commentary
The 2024 Election Is a Case Study on Snatching Disaster from the Jaws of Victory
By most accounts, Vice President Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign, without a lot of ramp up time--about 3 months. She easily defeated her opponent, former President and convicted felon Donald Trump in their one debate. She obviously knew the particulars of governing as a former government representative at the local, state and federal level, unlike Trump. Largely because of abortion, Trump's alleged threats to our democracy, and a massive war chest of campaign funds, most of the late polling indicated the race was too close to call.
But she lost. She lost all the battleground states. Trump almost got a majority of the public vote, which he had never done before. So what happened?
The polls were wrong again. This is not a reason Vice President Harris lost, but it demonstrates again that people do not tell the truth often in surveys.
Here are a dozen reasons Harris lost and Trump won.
Trump had an ironclad base of roughly 35% of the electorate which Harris did not have. His base voting was certain, hers was not.
Biden was a heavy anchor pulling Harris down as her mentor.
--He was perceived as weak and wishy, washy.
--He flip-flopped on enforcing immigration law, resulting in record border crowding.
--Harris denied she would do anything differently than Biden (out of respect for him).
--The public did not like his amnesty for school debt to be paid by the working class.
--His waiting to step down did not give Harris enough time to become known.
--Biden's comment on "garbage" was harmful at the very end of the campaign.
The public (especially Hispanic men)is still not ready to elect an educated Asian Woman of Color Commander and Chief.
Trump knew Harris could out-debate him, and only gave her one debate.
Trump gained sympathy with the two attacks on his life.
Trump effectively attacked Biden/Harris on the economy with effective ads on the cost of eggs and culture with Harris's transgender support.
Trump's felonies, crimes, and convictions were forgotten and "baked in" by the time of the election by most in the center-right.
Harris is giving $25,000 to new home buyers and attacking price-gouging groceries, which is considered a flimsy economic development program.
Harris completely misread Hispanics, especially the young men who felt the backed-up immigration crowds were not of the same standing as them.
The public bought Trump's lie that only his Administration had a strong economy--actually, Biden's was better.
The multiple third-party candidates drew an unknown number of votes from Harris.
Roughly 7 million votes for Biden did not vote for Harris, apparently for the reasons above.
A review of political history in America shows we will now enter another 4 year cycle of a Trump presidency. My guess is he will start strong and overreach like Nixon did in '72. The big question is the health of the protection built into the Constitution for the press. There are cracks in the polls about the support for a free press--which Trump branded successfully "The Fake Press." My guess is that since the press is a private for-profit business, there will be an unexpected new business model created as a believable independent press. It is scary to think that this is our future, at least for the next four years.
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